Author Topic: It begins: Mainstream media is talking about coin investing  (Read 1270 times)

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Offline badon

It begins:

Not chump change: rare coins could outperform as investments this year

Mainstream media is talking about coin investing a little bit more this week, but nothing crazy yet. This is the only one I have found that solely focuses on coin investing from a non-numismatic media outlet so far in 2017. This article says inflation will be the trigger. It has actually already started, because I have noticed evidence of USD inflation in currency exchanges. Not a lot yet, but I predicted it was likely happen in 2017, and here it is.

President Donald's platform is "Americans first". That means higher inflation combined with higher prices as foreign imports are slowed by taxes. That's not an ideal combination, because it has the potential to reduce the standard of living for USA wage earners, but the big advantage is the combination of inflation, less foreign competition, and higher prices means profit margins will be high enough to keep people employed - IF AND ONLY IF, a delicate balance is maintained. A lot can go wrong, and I'm prepared to wait it out just like I did from 2012 to 2015 when things were dull and the market very slowly started to get exciting again.

My reason for favoring the 2012-2017 non-Fiat for current purchase over all fiat pandas (and the older non-fiat pandas) is that the older ones have already moved up massively and are often more expensive even when mintages are 100's of times higher (e.g. 2003 or 2000 BU vs. Lunar Pandas or Nanjing Pandas or Temple Pandas or recent Expo Pandas [...] They will all move up going forward due to dollar depreciation and Chinese investor growth as Pandamonium often says, but the recent non-fiat coins have to also correct the mispricing relative to their mintage so they have 2 major reasons.

I agree with RhodiumPanda. My scary warnings above mostly apply to people who are spending too much money on fiat coins that aren't rare. The gold fiat pandas already corrected downward very hard and painfully, but at the exact same time, all of us here at CCF have been making tons of money on the "2012 to 2017 non-fiat coins" that RhodiumPanda mentioned in the quote below. I expect this trend to continue, so the scary stuff will probably concentrated on punishing fiat-lovers for their stupidity, and the good stuff will be concentrated on non-fiat buyers like us that have focused on low prices, low mintages, interesting history, controversial attention-getting disputes, etc.

Non-fiat v fiat: 2017 1/2 oz silver Gods of Harmony and Unity mintage 599 v 20k:


Although I'm framing this post like all of this stuff is new, actually it's not. It was already old enough to be neatly summed up with everything you needed to know, spelled out for us right here:

My chat with Hybridsole about 4 RELATED(!) pandas for investment purposes

That article starting to get out-of-date now, because new coins have been issued, the lunar panda series AND the Nanjing panda series have both been forked into 2 branches, and the 2016 4th panda expo VIP coins are thought to be last ones in that series. The controversy over the forking of the lunar panda series has been the most attention-getting, and despite all the yelling, that has been by far the best thing that could have ever happened because now everyone wants to collect them and hear more noisy arguments, haha. Things like that are interesting, and there are all kinds of fascinating clues about what's going on behind the scenes. There is politics, favoritism, plagiarism, and probably a corpse or two floating down the river, haha :)

But, at the end of it all, we have 2 major panda series from the Nanjing mint, and 2 major panda lunar series from the Shenyang mint. Anybody who starts collecting just one of them will probably end up collecting all 4 of them - IF they can find them! All 4 of those have sold out quickly to buyers worldwide, on every forum that talks about modern Chinese coins (MCC). The mintages for each series are so low they can't possibly satisfy demand, so everyone who was smart enough and socially well-connected enough (on the forums) to be invited to buy them, has probably made at least a little money already. Fantastic great buys, that's what those were.

The best part is the oldest of the Nanjing pandas date from 2014, and the oldest lunar pandas date from 2015, so enough time has passed to establish a track record. We have seen baby pandas and panda expos come and go, never to be seen again (except at MUCH higher prices), but the Nanjing pandas and the lunar pandas appear to be developing into the big winners in the MCC market, because they're still in production, mintages are rising, and demand is continually exceeding supply. The fact that we get new Nanjing pandas and Shenyang lunar pandas every year means newcomers haven't missed the boat, and they will get another chance to buy next year if they're too slow or too poor to complete a set before they're gone.

Basically, my (our) entire investing strategy has revolved around exploiting the loss of market share that began in the flagship fiat pandas in 2016. IT IS WORKING! I'm going to keep doing it. Fiat-lovers are facing some big risks of losses right now in prices and mintages that are too high compared to our non-fiat coins, so if they want to know what it feels like to have profits again, they will have to join us. We have been on the right track, and it's becoming increasingly obvious with each passing day. Fiat lovers will have to choose between their love of fiat, and their love of profits. Guess which one is going to win?
 

Offline badon