Great discussion here:
Numistacker - your Chinese coin choices are well-thought out and balanced, but only 5% of net worth in PM's and MCC total - seriously? That is dangerously low. I'd like to see what you recommend for the other 95%. The Stock Market is incredibly overvalued again - esp. the U.S. (25 trailing (only one that matters) PE, 2% dividend yield (both double (or half value) of average historical ratios) and truly is experiencing "art bubble pricing due to years of massive worldwide banana-republic QE blatant money printing only". Milllions are in the stock market (like sheep to the slaughter) and no one you ever ask and talk to about it that is in there - can give any good reason why they are in there except it is what they are told to do (and recent returns). A bubble of ignorance to epic proportions. Rhodium, Rare MCC, Platinum, Silver, Gold, Palladium in that order are all massively better values than stock, bonds or currencies at this point (far rarer, far more underpriced, historically, and cannot be anally generated (require energy, labor, land, technology and sweat to produce) and are not pumped by every stockbroker and central bank on the planet. (only palladium and gold are even close to fair value, currently of the metals or MCC (and som certain very popular MCC's like the moon festival and some older ones).
Pandamonium will be proven correct about currencies (unfortunately) - Japan, ECB and U.S. (in that order) are utterly bankrupt and have all turned their currencies into sand and destroyed the value of money (screwing all retirees in the process just like FDR did by confiscating gold in 1933 then promptly re-valuing it 7) with near 0, 0 or negative interest rates (another invalid diversification - simply a game of musical chairs) it is just a question of when, not if this all implodes - it is all somebody else's liability with currencies ($200Trillion Worldwide - the supply level of salt water - far beyond toilet paper). Pandamonium is not totally correct about MCC all being cheap, however (relative to 2004 and earlier). The rare (by fiat standards) 12oz. pandas, early proofs, HK non-fiat coins, etc. have gone up by an average factor of 10X. They can and will still go higher, but have already run-up a huge amount relative to the modern super low mintage non-fiat coins (E.G. the 12oz 1996 lowest mintage (800) silver panda I was able to buy for $400-$430 in 2004-2006. They went to about $8000 and are still around $5000 (That is 20X at the peak and still 12X). The 10,000 mintage 1983 silver panda has gone from $200 to $2000-$3000 in the same time.
Barsenalt is correct that there are art aspects to MCC too. (That is why I won't chase the 2000 mintage Moon Panda Kilo at $6K but will load up on 199 mintage copper and silver Nanjings at $50-$200. Even at $200 the Nanjings are a 300X+ better rarity value (30X price divided by 10 times more mintage). (of course the $600 extra silver in the Kilo narrows it a bit). I did ride 1 Munich 12oz from the $500's to the $19K (dealer offer) and back down to $10K by being a Collector first. The 2nd one I dumped in the low/mid $2K range on the way up. Even at $10K this non-fiat coin is still up 20X. 2010/2011 was a big up-wave in MCC (mostly fiat but the non-fiat coins like Munichs, too). It will not be the last cyle, however.
The modern super rare non-fiat coins haven't experienced this massive run-up yet like happened in 2004-2011 with the much more common MCC fiat pandas. Even that run-up was driven mainly by U.S., German, HK investors - the Chinese barely participated.
It only takes 1 out of every 13 million Chinese (let alone foreigners) to want a full collection of the modern non-fiat coins of 99 mintage or more (all silver pandas (or brass, copper, etc.) to blow the lid off this. I'll take those odds over Amazon at a PE of 600:1 or Apple Stock being worth over 3 times more than every oz. of silver (counting all jewelry coinage, flatware, bars, etc.), platinum, palladium and Rhodium (and all silver pandas combined) together in the world.
It only takes 1 out of every 70 million Chinese (just 0.35 of a person in Shanghai alone - the biggest population city on the planet) to want a $5K gold 18 mintage 3rd Expo or 19 mintage Lunar panda that Numistacker alluded to, and its game over - vertical jump.
Pandamonium is a bit negative (except on older MCC where he is relatively over positve), Barsenalt is a bit positive on everything, but there is the biggest game of can-kicking musical chairs in world history going on. Laws of economics and physics cannot be violated indefinitely.
Following is FDR's screwing of savers in the past (similar to Bernanke/Yellen/Obama's (and Abe and Draghi, etc.) screwing of retirees with CD's and bank accounts and near 0 rates the past 7.8 years - causing massive forced poverty. (Pasted from Wikiepdia with my one added ((( ))) note regarding the near 70% screwing that FDR foisted on U.S citizen savers.
The United States Gold Reserve Act of January 30, 1934 required that all gold and gold certificates held by the Federal Reserve be surrendered and vested in the sole title of the United States Department of the Treasury.[1][2]
The Gold Reserve Act outlawed most private possession of gold, forcing individuals to sell it to the Treasury, after which it was stored in United States Bullion Depository at Fort Knox and other locations. The act also changed the nominal price of gold from $20.67 per troy ounce to $35 ((NOTE: The price change was effected AFTER it was turned in))). This price change incentivized foreign investors to export their gold to the United States, while simultaneously devaluing the U.S. dollar in an attempt to spark inflation. The increase in gold reserves due to the price change as well as the confiscation clause resulted in a large accumulation of gold in the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury. The increase in the money supply lowered real interest rates which increased investment in durable goods.
A year earlier, in 1933, Executive Order 6102 had made it a criminal offense for U.S. citizens to own or trade gold anywhere in the world, with exceptions for some jewelry and collector's coins. These prohibitions were relaxed starting in 1964 – gold certificates were again allowed for private investors on April 24, 1964, although the obligation to pay the certificate holder on demand in gold specie would not be honored. By 1975 Americans could again freely own and trade gold.
- Just my 2 cents (and one paste)
- Rhodium Panda
Edit by badon: medal = non-fiat coin.
