Author Topic: Diversify and hope our beautiful art coins don't crash like painting prices  (Read 1418 times)

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Offline barsenault

Let's just hope this doesn't happen to our 'beautiful art pieces.'  Hence why I diversify into plain ole semi-numi bullion coins.  If I need liquidity I sell one of my kilo horses just over spot and I lose no money - actually make some dough.  Just say'n. Make sure you are diversified in this space.  Because a lot of what I collect is 'art work on canvas', it's just that the canvas happens to be silver, brass or copper. Just some food for thought!
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Offline trouble

Owning fiat and non fiat art pieces are withness of history. Collection is type of fun by researching.

China non fiat is fun due to lack of information as compare to fiat.

Careful of high value item if you have no extra money on it. Either you win big or loss big.

Offline pandamonium

barsenault you are missing the point.   Art work/paintings all saw a huge increase in price so now they are falling back to Earth.    MCC & bullion have not seen a huge increase in price so this market is just beginning.    Most all articles today say how the financial guru/advisors say to buy gold even those that hate gold.    They also say that China will be a big player in the world financial system once dominated by the USA.    Paintings are not made of precious metals.     When we stop to look at the facts they all say the same thing....precious metals and MCC are in a beginning stage of a bull run.    What is left that is a better investment?    Not much.  Many diversify from rare coins/non-fiat coins to bullion.   I like MCC and junk silver....
Now is the time to extend your credit or sell used items to raise cash to buy........

Edit by badon: medal = non-fiat coin.
« Last Edit: 2016 Sep 24, 03:42:06 PM by badon »

Offline Y7ASyxC

you also can't cut a small corner off a picasso to buy food or ammunition, but you can cut a small piece of a gold bullion coin to do that.
  • never argue with idiots

Offline barsenault

Um, tell that to person who bought the 'pagoda art work' for 25k, and a few years later I picked up a set of 69's for 2.2k.  Um, tell that to the person who bought the art work of the 12 oz Munich Pandas for 25k and the last one sold for 10k.  Sorry, art on metal does appreciate and depreciate the same way as art work on canvass.  I have several other examples if you'd like me to share them.  I'm sure others could too. Some we know well on this forum.

Offline pandamonium

Yes it has been up/down, up/down as bullion is manipulated and more information comes out on MCC.     I have a 5 oz that is worth about 1/2 of what i paid when the market was up.   So what?   It will be priced back to where i bought it, then up from there.    The priority is that i have possession of the 5 oz, that is all that matters.    Stop to think.    Do some reading and research.     Even the hate gold crowd is buying gold.     There is not enough bullion or MCC for upcoming demand.    There is always down attitudes when bullion is kept down in price and the market appears bleak.   It is just the usual manipulation that we have seen so many times.   That is all coming to a end.      A parabolic spike in bullion is in the cards and i have said that for 10 yrs now.    Stop complaining and be happy you have what you have.    IF you really feel you are going to get screwed then sell what you have.   The wise (w/ cash) are buying.........

Offline barsenault

who is complaining? Lol.  I'm just pointing out to the newbies here, that they need to be mindful of the fact that 'paintings' go up in value and they go down.  And to be careful when considering a 'painting.'  It may be on the up cycle or down cycle. I hope no one who is getting into this market buys something for 25k, only to see their investment go down to 2k.  That's not complaining, that wisdom, in case you don't know the difference. Lol.  And nothing is coming to an end.  You continue to pump the end is near, the world is ending, the fire and hailstone will be coming from on high.  Days end, and days begin...and we live another day to buy the many thousands of MCC's available on Ebay and other places.  Take a deep breath, everything will be okay. 

Offline numistacker

One needs to exercise caution always and not get carried away. It easy to rationalise things as investments that really are no such thing. Often those items that halve never double again as the fashion moves on. I try to stay reasonably grounded in reality and there is a good amount of things i feel are safe during the year so that I dont have to venture out my comfort zone. I will never be the guy who buys the 5,000$ oz of gold limited edition nor the rare 1/2oz pandas but I have bought a 2006 1oz gold and a 2003 1oz and a 2011 1oz as i feel comfortable there.

I am never going to be an art buyer and i distrust diamonds and all other stones. Diversification is key. 5% of net worth in PM/non PM/non-fiat and most of the 5% in PM that is no more than 25% over spot. That said I am a big fan of Nanjing Panda 2016, Panda Lunar, Dragon and Phoenix etc

Offline trouble

Collection vs investment mind set.

Risk and return tolerant level

Investment portfolio and style

must consider many factors in decision making.

Offline RhodiumPanda

Great discussion here:

Numistacker - your Chinese coin choices are well-thought out and balanced, but only 5% of net worth in PM's and MCC total - seriously?  That is dangerously low.  I'd like to see what you recommend for the other 95%.   The Stock Market is incredibly overvalued again - esp. the U.S.  (25 trailing (only one that matters) PE, 2% dividend yield (both double (or half value) of average historical ratios) and truly is experiencing "art bubble pricing due to years of massive worldwide banana-republic QE blatant money printing only".  Milllions are in the stock market (like sheep to the slaughter) and no one you ever ask and talk to about it that is in there - can give any good reason why they are in there except it is what they are told to do (and recent returns).  A bubble of ignorance to epic proportions.   Rhodium, Rare MCC, Platinum, Silver, Gold, Palladium in that order are all massively better values than stock, bonds or currencies at this point (far rarer, far more underpriced, historically, and cannot be anally generated (require energy, labor, land, technology and sweat to produce) and are not pumped by every stockbroker and central bank on the planet.  (only palladium and gold are even close to fair value, currently of the metals or MCC (and som certain very popular MCC's like the moon festival and some older ones).

Pandamonium will be proven correct about currencies (unfortunately) - Japan, ECB and U.S. (in that order) are utterly bankrupt and have all turned their currencies into sand and destroyed the value of money (screwing all retirees in the process just like FDR did by confiscating gold in 1933 then promptly re-valuing it 7) with near 0, 0 or negative interest rates (another invalid diversification - simply a game of musical chairs) it is just a question of when, not if this all implodes - it is all somebody else's liability with currencies ($200Trillion Worldwide - the supply level of salt water - far beyond toilet paper).    Pandamonium is not totally correct about MCC all being cheap, however (relative to 2004 and earlier).  The rare (by fiat standards) 12oz. pandas, early proofs, HK non-fiat coins, etc. have gone up by an average factor of 10X.  They can and will still go higher, but have already run-up a huge amount relative to the modern super low mintage non-fiat coins (E.G. the 12oz 1996 lowest mintage (800) silver panda I was able to buy for $400-$430 in 2004-2006.  They went to about $8000 and are still around $5000 (That is 20X at the peak and still 12X).  The 10,000 mintage 1983 silver panda has gone from $200 to $2000-$3000 in the same time.

Barsenalt is correct that there are art aspects to MCC too.  (That is why I won't chase the 2000 mintage Moon Panda Kilo at $6K but will load up on 199 mintage copper and silver Nanjings at $50-$200.  Even at $200 the Nanjings are a 300X+ better rarity value (30X price divided by 10 times more mintage).  (of course the $600 extra silver in the Kilo narrows it a bit).  I did ride 1 Munich 12oz from the $500's to the $19K (dealer offer) and back down to $10K by being a Collector first.  The 2nd one I dumped in the low/mid $2K range on the way up.  Even at $10K this non-fiat coin is still up 20X.  2010/2011 was a big up-wave in MCC (mostly fiat but the non-fiat coins like Munichs, too).   It will not be the last cyle, however.

The modern super rare non-fiat coins haven't experienced this massive run-up yet like happened in 2004-2011 with the much more common MCC fiat pandas.  Even that run-up was driven mainly by U.S., German, HK investors - the Chinese barely participated.

It only takes 1 out of every 13 million Chinese (let alone foreigners) to want a full collection of the modern non-fiat coins of 99 mintage or more (all silver pandas (or brass, copper, etc.) to blow the lid off this.   I'll take those odds over Amazon at a PE of 600:1 or Apple Stock being worth over 3 times more than every oz. of silver (counting all jewelry coinage, flatware, bars, etc.), platinum, palladium and Rhodium (and all silver pandas combined) together in the world.

It only takes 1 out of every 70 million Chinese (just 0.35 of a person in Shanghai alone - the biggest population city on the planet) to want a $5K gold 18 mintage 3rd Expo or 19 mintage Lunar panda that Numistacker alluded to, and its game over - vertical jump.

Pandamonium is a bit negative (except on older MCC where he is relatively over positve), Barsenalt is a bit positive on everything, but there is the biggest game of can-kicking musical chairs in world history going on.  Laws of economics and physics cannot be violated indefinitely.

Following is FDR's screwing of savers in the past (similar to Bernanke/Yellen/Obama's (and Abe and Draghi, etc.) screwing of retirees with CD's and bank accounts and near 0 rates the past 7.8 years - causing massive forced poverty.  (Pasted from Wikiepdia with my one added ((( ))) note regarding the near 70% screwing that FDR foisted on U.S citizen savers.

The United States Gold Reserve Act of January 30, 1934 required that all gold and gold certificates held by the Federal Reserve be surrendered and vested in the sole title of the United States Department of the Treasury.[1][2]
The Gold Reserve Act outlawed most private possession of gold, forcing individuals to sell it to the Treasury, after which it was stored in United States Bullion Depository at Fort Knox and other locations. The act also changed the nominal price of gold from $20.67 per troy ounce to $35 ((NOTE: The price change was effected AFTER it was turned in))).  This price change incentivized foreign investors to export their gold to the United States, while simultaneously devaluing the U.S. dollar in an attempt to spark inflation. The increase in gold reserves due to the price change as well as the confiscation clause resulted in a large accumulation of gold in the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury. The increase in the money supply lowered real interest rates which increased investment in durable goods.
A year earlier, in 1933, Executive Order 6102 had made it a criminal offense for U.S. citizens to own or trade gold anywhere in the world, with exceptions for some jewelry and collector's coins. These prohibitions were relaxed starting in 1964 – gold certificates were again allowed for private investors on April 24, 1964, although the obligation to pay the certificate holder on demand in gold specie would not be honored. By 1975 Americans could again freely own and trade gold.

- Just my 2 cents (and one paste)
- Rhodium Panda

Edit by badon: medal = non-fiat coin.
« Last Edit: 2016 Sep 24, 03:41:23 PM by badon »
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Offline badon

I split the posts in this topic from somewhere before this post:

Re: MCC LIST #183, move from LBC and continuation here at the CC forum:
Interesting as always Rhodium Panda.   Here is another article that is very well worth the read.....jsminest   " As China prepares to announce their gold reserve amount..."  by The Daily Economist........ Have had phone calls/contact that say a banking holiday in the West is very close, guess we will find out.......

I couldn't move the above post, so there's the quote of it to maintain continuity.

Offline badon

Let's just hope this doesn't happen to our 'beautiful art pieces.'  Hence why I diversify into plain ole semi-numi bullion coins.  If I need liquidity I sell one of my kilo horses just over spot and I lose no money - actually make some dough.  Just say'n. Make sure you are diversified in this space.  Because a lot of what I collect is 'art work on canvas', it's just that the canvas happens to be silver, brass or copper. Just some food for thought!

Thanks for this info barsenault, I posted it to Reddit:

The emerging-art bubble popped due to supply glut from living artists: $100'000 Painting Bought to Flip Is Now Worth About $20'000 : ArtInvesting

Offline badon

barsenault's article says the pricing was driven by speculator greed. Fundamentally, it looks to me people forgot that what makes art valuable is the fame of the artist, AND if the artist is still alive, the "mintage" is unlimited, so a glut of new paintings is what caused prices to drop. Art investors probably need to wait for the artist to die before they start speculating on values.