Author Topic: Something is happening - another flea jump?  (Read 1172 times)

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Offline badon

Something is happening - another flea jump?
« on: 2016 Aug 15, 10:18:55 PM »
I don't know why exactly, but I sense some kind of of excitement floating around, including in the coin market. I feel like I should be grabbing whatever I can get my hands on before the whole thing erupts like a volcano. Anyone know what's going on? Is there some news or whatever that might match this? The whole world seems very optimistic right now, despite obvious flaws, and I'm not talking about only the coin market - it's everything. I don't know what that means exactly, but it does lead me to believe that optimism will keep markets ever-more interesting as the busy season approaches.

Maybe the right word is, "disinhibited". There's a lot less fear right now than there was this time last year. Maybe inflation is coming, and it's going to add momentum to the pre-existing upward trend? This all feels a lot like this same time of year in 2008. Late 2008, and the following 4 years were incredibly exciting, but I expect future developments to dwarf the past peaks until  they just look like unimportant noise.

It looks like I first mentioned the concept of "flea jumps" in 2012 (or before). What I meant by that is, a previously-important market peak is later dwarfed by future peaks, such that the old peaks looked like insignificant "flea jumps":

badon flea jump OR jumps -fleas - Google Search

You can see a pretty good demonstration of it here:

Re: Silver prediction: The Stegosaurus and the April Tree (2010-04-02)

That article is perfect in this context because it deals with "the end of the world" when everybody thought the party was over in 2008 after the market temporarily dropped, along with the precious metals market shown in the chart. Today, that 2008 peak is almost unnoticeable compared to the peak that happened about 2 years later. Likewise, that peak will be forgotten when we see the much more impressive peak that is coming. Like always, a drop follows a peak, but who cares? Just buy more, then. Rinse and repeat. Keep doing it for a decade, you may lose your composure when you eventually learn exactly how much your investments have become worth.

I remember vividly the first time I calculated the value of my coin collection, and I definitely lost my cool. I started with only $1600, an empty stomach, and only an umbrella to live under. No pain, no gain, right? I stretched as much as I dared to acquire the best, rarest coins as quickly as I could, and then when it all happened, it happened fast. The sacrifices and the suffering paid off like I always KNEW it would, but it's a very different thing to actually EXPERIENCE. The worst was behind me, the nightmares were over, and I finally had something meaningful to show for my pathetic perilous little life.

After September 2008, that's when the negativity was at its highest, and the April 2008 peak looked like the end of an era:



By October 2008, things started looking like they were going to turn around, but that's when I remember Peter Anthony saying "bull markets climb walls of worry", and that's exactly what happened. The peak that happened in late 2009 was when we heard a lot of people shrieking "BUBBLE! BUBBLE!", haha :) But then this happened:



Can you even find late 2009 in that chart? It's so small! This should help:



That bubble everyone was worried about was like fizz in a keg that just got popped open for a party. This is what is happening again. I'm sure I'm not the only one that senses it, because everyone is showing it on their faces. They're so optimistic. Something is happening, somewhere right now. I can feel it. It's exciting, but I don't know exactly what it is. I think the sharp reversal I predicted must be gaining momentum:

Re: Prediction 2015 September 23 of "sharp reversal" of gold downward trend



I should do an update on that chart, but I'm out of time. If there's something you want to buy before things get crazy, you should do it now. September is less than 3 weeks away, and I expect that will be when it starts to get difficult to buy things at reasonable (pre-crazy) prices. Whatever you do, please do not bet against badon - it never goes well. I know I'm being vague here, but that doesn't mean I'm wrong. My public track record for being right about things like this should be persuasive enough for you to take what I'm saying seriously, even if it is admittedly very wishy-washy right now. Everything will be clear later, that you can be sure of.

Cheers! I wish you well, you earned it!
« Last Edit: 2016 Aug 15, 10:29:30 PM by badon »
 

Offline badon

Re: Something is happening - another flea jump?
« Reply #1 on: 2016 Sep 08, 09:40:16 PM »
It looks like I was completely correct, once again:

Re: 2016 12 oz silver ANA Anaheim pandas show signs of future spike in silver
[...]

Priced too low - Non-fiat 2016 1 oz silver American liberty instantly gains 330%
I can't believe those 2016 ANA Pandas are going for nearly 700.00 on MCM. PF70.  That's just ridiculous! Of course that's my opinion and I'm sticking to it.  On the other hand, the new American Liberty broke some records, selling out in like 4 minutes.  Mintage 12,500.  Purchase price on the mint website was 34.95.  Secondary market is about 150.00 a coin (set of 4).  This is a low mintage non fiat coin, relatively speaking for a US issue.  Anyway, maybe the market is turning up a bit?

The most amazing thing about all of this is the fact people ARE comparing newly-issued coins with past peak prices of 30 year-old coins, both for the Chinese coins and the American coins. Wow! THAT is what I meant when I wrote in my article:

Something is happening - another flea jump?
I don't know why exactly, but I sense some kind of of excitement floating around, including in the coin market. I feel like I should be grabbing whatever I can get my hands on before the whole thing erupts like a volcano. Anyone know what's going on? Is there some news or whatever that might match this? The whole world seems very optimistic right now, despite obvious flaws, and I'm not talking about only the coin market - it's everything. I don't know what that means exactly, but it does lead me to believe that optimism will keep markets ever-more interesting as the busy season approaches.

Maybe the right word is, "disinhibited". There's a lot less fear right now than there was this time last year.

I was right! And now it's completely obvious that the optimism has not only returned, it is translating into INCREDIBLE, rapid price gains. Once again, it's worldwide, for both the USA and the PRC:

Priced too low - Non-fiat 2016 1 oz silver American liberty instantly gains 330%
I found the article that says 6 minute sellout:

American Liberty medal 'unavailable' after 6 minutes | Coin World

They're selling for hundreds of dollars each on ebay right now:

* Search ebay for 2016 American liberty non-fiat coins ongoing, newly listed
* Search ebay for 2016 American liberty non-fiat coins ongoing, ending soonest
* Search ebay for 2016 American liberty non-fiat coins ended sold

[...]

GREAT find barsenault, thanks for telling us about this. [...] Popularity and rarity, in that order, is all that matters. [...] To answer your question about the market "turning up a bit", YES, I got that vibe when I wrote this article: Something is happening - another flea jump? I couldn't pin it down exactly, but I could "feel it in me bones. Har, me mateys!".

If I'm ever wrong about something like this in the future, I hope I'm wrong the way you were wrong about thinking the 2016 ANA Anaheim pandas were overpriced, haha :) We could have worse problems :) I think I like these problems :) Good times are BACK! The whole premise of the "flea jump" idea is that past peaks are nothing compared to future peaks. That's very, very encouraging :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :)

According to data in Market capitalization: A new way for investors to compare, analyze, and predict coin prices, many of these coins are still underpriced, with lots more upside, despite their already impressive gains.