Author Topic: My chat with Hybridsole about 4 RELATED(!) pandas for investment purposes  (Read 3944 times)

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Offline badon

The short version:

1. Shanghai Mint CCT6412: 2014 baby panda 2016 prototype 4 coin set (ebay).
2. Nanjing mint CCT6356: 2014 two lovely pandas 5 coin set (ebay)
3. Shenyang Mint CCT6344: Lunar panda, 2015 to today (ebay).
4. Shanghai Mint CCT6990: Panda coin collection expo, 2013 to 2015 (ebay).

Some explanation:

First, the metric 2014 30 g silver baby pandas were minted semi-secretly at the Shanghai Mint in piedfort thickness. Second, the Nanjing Mint moved quickly to produce double-weight metric 2014 60 g silver pandas, which were also the first pandas from the Nanjing mint. Third, the Shenyang Mint decided to get in on the action with double-weight STANDARD 2015 2 oz silver lunar pandas. Fourth, while all this competitive mint rivalry drama is playing out, the Shanghai Mint produced panda expo coins from 2013 to 2015, which are VIP-only events and also the only expos dedicated solely to panda coins.

The first 3 of those above are all directly related to the plans to debase the 2016 pandas. It is fascinating that so much was happening around this time. There was a clear competitive rivalry between the Shanghai, Nanjing, and Shenyang mints. The friction of that rivalry seemed to burst into flames after everyone figured out the baby pandas were production prototypes meant to test tooling and processes for the flagship panda series in debased weights, starting in 2016.

There is a long track record for failure of substandard metric weight coins, so I imagine the Nanjing Mint and the Shenyang Mint may have felt like vultures circling above the dying panda series - but instead of just waiting for the pandas to die, they both decided to make their own double-weight pandas that are obviously intended to compete directly with the substandard weight of the baby pandas. In stark contrast to the Nanjing and Shenyang mint's circling vultures, the Shanghai Mint produced the panda expo coins, which represent a peak in the glory days of the panda series, before they were debased, and the panda expo events were cancelled!

This kind of thing is unprecedented in China's coinage history! I can't think of anything like it happening anywhere else, either. It's things like this that make some coins more valuable than others, regardless of their mintages. But, in this case, all of the mintages of outrageously low. I believe some of these pandas will be the ultimate collector coins of China, as time passes and more people learn their fascinating history.

There is one final coin worth mentioning that is related to the other 4 kinds above, the 2014 Macau expo pandas (ebay). The design is exactly the same as the 2015 panda 3rd panda expo (ebay), but it's actually the 2014 Macau expo panda that copied the design from the 2015 3rd panda expo, because the 2015 coin was designed first in 2014, and then the artist re-used the design for the 2014 Macau expo pandas to save himself some work.

So there you have it. The most interesting pandas ever minted, and they're super-rare, but available for peanuts on ebay right now. I want to reiterate that I think these are the pandas that will eventually come out on top at the highest end of the price scale in the more distant future, when panda collectors get tired of paying $27'500 for 1995 1/2 oz gold pandas that have a much higher population (2000 to 4000) than the even the most common coin in the list above, the 2014 15 g silver baby panda that has a mintage of 2'014, and costs $66 on ebay right now, from luckmoneyro: 222153965298 (only 2 left). I found them $1 cheaper at $65 from lavendersh7: 261727300340 (35 sold and only 2 left). luckmoneyro still has an original mint tray of 15 them for $980 ($65.34 each): 322170053224.

I'm not sure of this, but it appears lavendersh7 is almost sold out, while luckmoneyro still has several in his inventory. For the 30 g silver and brass, they shot up from $160 each to today's $400 to $500 price within a few weeks after they sold out in luckmoneyro's inventory. Based on the info in my article, Charts of price barriers in the modern Chinese coin market, I think the $65/$66 price on the 2014 15 g silver baby pandas will probably surpass $100 very quickly after they're sold out. I don't think they'll encounter any resistance until they approach $110 to $120 price level, where they will be worth nearly double what many people paid for them, and then there will be some profit-taking sales that will slow price gains and make prices hover around that level for a while. At least, I hope it doesn't shoot through $120 and keep rising without any pause, because slow gains are much more sustainable than fast gains.

The chat:

Quote
<hybridsole> Nice job on the recent movements with silver and gold. Which one has the bigger upside moving forward?
<badon> hybridsole: I think silver is probably the better investment if all you care about is maximum upward movemant, but that's just because it's more volatile. I used to buy exclusivelys silver, but now I would tend to prefer gold for liquidity (instead of cash), since all my "profit" investing is done with the Chinese coins right now.
<badon> I've made more money on the Chinese coins than anything else I've ever done, including precious metals. That says a lot when you review my past precious metal predictions - I've had an easy time making money from precious metals, so the fact I prefer something else is attention-getting.
<hybridsole> I got into silver for the first time last year. Loaded up on '16 Chinese Pandas for about 20 each
<hybridsole> Also lots of Perth Monkeys
<hybridsole> For me it was a 5-10 yr hedge to see how valuable they'll get
<hybridsole> IMO They are too illiquid to try to make short term profits
<badon> Slck: You are awesome, thank you.
<badon> hybridsole: You are right, the biggest downside with any kind of collectible investment is poor liquidity. Although coin collecting stands as by far the most impressive, with a track record spanning 2300 years or more, it does not escape the poor liquidity problem. The way I like to put is, the best investors are collectors, because buying quick and selling slow is what collectors do, and they always make more money, WITH
<badon> LESS RISK, than investors who don't have any psychological attachment to their coins.
<badon> The irony of that is "buy what you like" turns out to be good investing advice for coins, even though it's probably by far the worst thing you could ever do in any kind of mainstream type of investing.
<badon> If you're looking to make a lot of money on pandas, I recommend selling the commons you have (I assume they're common) and replace them with 2014 baby pandas: http://rover.ebay.com/rover/1/711-53200-19255-0/1?ff3=4&pub=5574935034&toolid=10001&campid=5336732290&customid=&mpre=http://www.ebay.com/sch/Coins-Paper-Money/11116/i.html?_sop=10&_nkw=2014+%28baby%2Cbabies%2Cbabys%2Cjia+wu%2Cjiawu%29+%28panda%2Cpandas%29&LH_PrefLoc=2
<badon> There are several other kinds of pandas that really awesome too, but those are the ones that have the lowest price and the most upside potential. Hopefully they're the first to move up, but I highly recommend diversifying into some others if you want to improve your odds having your fingers in all the pies.
<badon> By the way 5 to 10 years is a REALLY good timeframe for coin investing.
<badon> Since I buy a lot of coins strictly as an investment, in addition to building a real coin collection, I like to look at things in terms of shorter time frames of 2 to 5 years, or even 6 to 18 months.
<badon> In practice, I get in and out of the coin market whenever the money is good, and the only reason I'm sticking with it longer this time around is because we're in a super-trend that will probably last decades.
<hybridsole> It would seem 2016 could be a fairly good year with the limited mintage coins. Sure there is more interest in this years coins than any of the last 4-5.
<hybridsole> Silver Pandas are capped at 6 million, and first year of the 30 gram
<hybridsole> Those baby pandas weight half as much and cost twice the price. I'm sure they're collectible but I don't think I could make that swap.
<badon> hybridsole: Actually, the 2016 30 g silver pandas have a mintage of 8 million, the same as the previous few years. 2016 is a great year to invest in pandas, but not the 2016 30 g silver panda. The baby pandas were minted in 2014, in the 30 g weight, as production prototypes for the 2016 pandas. Some of them are only a little more expensive than 2016 pandas, but the highest mintage of baby pandas is the 15 g silver one, with a
<badon> mintage of only 2'014, the same as the year. Very few people know they exist, and I have no doubt they will make a few people rich when the market wakes up to them.
<badon> hybridsole: You should read what I've written about the baby pandas at the CC forum. You will be very impressed.
<badon> I'm 100% convinced you will be selling your common pandas and getting baby pandas instead, after you've done a little research to verify what I'm telling you.
<hybridsole> That's a very limited run, wow
<hybridsole> For a country of over a billion people
<badon> Yeah, the 30 g silver and brass have a mintage of only 200, and they're STILL ON EBAY for under $500!
<badon> Certife NGC 69 too: http://rover.ebay.com/rover/1/711-53200-19255-0/1?icep_ff3=2&pub=5574935034&toolid=10001&campid=5336732290&icep_item=162112607311&ipn=psmain&icep_vectorid=229466&kwid=902099&mtid=824&kw=lg
<badon> Certified
<badon> At the elite level, there is the 2014 30 g gold baby panda, with a mintage of only 30: http://rover.ebay.com/rover/1/711-53200-19255-0/1?icep_ff3=2&pub=5574935034&toolid=10001&campid=5336732290&icep_item=322165614556&ipn=psmain&icep_vectorid=229466&kwid=902099&mtid=824&kw=lg
<badon> It's a lot more expensive, so there is a lot less short term upside potential on that gold one (we could be surprised though!), but over the long term, that one coin will probably make a lot of people millionaires, all by itself.
<badon> I tend to prioritize the rarest coins first, so if you can afford to, I recommend getting a gold one. If you can't afford it, the cheap 15 g silver and the certified 30 g and brass ones are the best deals.
<badon> The 15 g silver is particularly attractive because it hasn't moved up much at all yet. It's only $66.
<hybridsole> That's an awesome coin
<hybridsole> Where do you recommend selling? eBay also?
<badon> For short term profits, the 15g silver might be the best bet. Some wealthy buyers have claimed they have spent more money on 15 g silver than any of the others. For msyelf, I only bought one of the 15 g silver, and a bunch of the 30 g and brass. I own ONE very pretty 30 g gold too. I wish I could afford more of the gold, but I needed to diversify.
<badon> Yes, ebay is the best place to sell, but you can sell on the CC forum too. https://forum.coincompendium.com/index.php?board=83.0
<badon> I highly recommend sticking to ebay as a buyer, but as a seller, naturally there are advantages to selling off-ebay.
<hybridsole> Reddit.com/r/pmsforsale seems pretty active too
<hybridsole> So what you're saying is pick up some 2014 baby pandas. Doesn't matter which one
<badon> Yes, it is. LjL had it configured to announce new posts in ##gold, but it was too noisy. That's a good thing in terms of activity.
<badon> hybridsole: Yes, any of the baby pandas are good investments. You can start small or go big, you really have some excellent choices, and all of them are good.
<hybridsole> 15 silver, 30 silver or copper, and especially a 30 gold
<badon> I recommend the brass one certified NGC 69 or PCGS 69.
<badon> Yes, that's right.
<badon> The "copper" is actually brass.
<hybridsole> Brass I mean
<badon> There are only 2 brass ones on ebay right now, and both are certified. They sold out a few months ago and promptly doubled in value.
<hybridsole> Are there many fakes?
<badon> Not of baby pandas, not yet. They're not well-known enough yet.
<hybridsole> People are always leery of Chinese stuff
<badon> Plus, you have nothing to worry about for fakes if you buy from luckmoneyro or dragonzeng168. They're both excellent dealers.
<hybridsole> Got any other recommendations besides baby pandas?
<badon> You can always ask me too. I maintain a list at CCF that eliminates most fakes from search results, which is helpful.
<badon> Yes, next after the baby pandas, I recommend the lunar pandas.
<hybridsole> What should I do with my Perth monkeys
<badon> I personally would sell them if I were you, but since diversification is goood, if you like them, by all means just keep them.
<badon> They don't have nearly the upside potential that China does. Australia is a tiny counttry in comparison.
<badon> Thats' why all of my investing is in Chinese coins.
<hybridsole> Lunar Pandas are Canadian?
<badon> No, Chinese.
<badon> I'll find you some links, hold on.
<badon> Baby pandas: https://www.coincompendium.com/w/index.php/CCT6412
<badon> lunar pandas: https://www.coincompendium.com/w/index.php/CCT6344
<hybridsole> Ah I was looking at the Privy
<badon> Ignore that silver plated one.
<badon> It probably shouldn't be there.
<badon> Here is the latest drama with the lunar pandas: https://forum.coincompendium.com/index.php?topic=4827.0
<badon> The series has been "forked" by 2 different sponsors who appear to have been former partners. That has greatly increased interest in the series.
<badon> This is all about the excitement surrounding some error COA's that accidentally escaped the mint when they were supposed to be destroyed. Most of the surviving specimens ended up in Westerners hands: https://forum.coincompendium.com/index.php?topic=4720.0
<badon> There's a ton of good reading about the baby pandas here: https://forum.coincompendium.com/index.php?board=86.0
<badon> This posts basically lays out all the best pandas to invest in: https://forum.coincompendium.com/index.php?topic=4636.msg19982#msg19982
<badon> Baby pandas, Nanjing pandas, lunar pandas, and panda expo pandas. 4 main types that are all important, controversial, very rare, and mostly not too expensive yet.
<hybridsole> So the Lunar Pandas aren't really out yet? I'm on mobile right now so I'll have to dig into those links later
<badon> The lunar pandas ARE out. They started in 2015.
<badon> I have invested in all 4 of those, but my biggest and/or favorite investments are in the baby pandas and lunar pandas. I own the key 2013 brass panda 1st panda expo, with a mintage of 18 too.
<badon> That will probably be a million dollar coin someday too.
<badon> As it turns out, all of those panda types are related, except perhaps the panda expos: https://forum.coincompendium.com/index.php?topic=4717.0
<badon> The baby pandas were first, then the Nanjing pandas and lunar pandas tried to beat the 2016 pandas to the market.
<badon> That all stems from a rivalry between the different mints. The baby pandas are from the Shanghai mint. The Nanjing pandas from Nanjing, and the lunar pandas from Shenyang.
<badon> The connection between them all leads directly to the debasement of the main flagship panda series in 2016, so they're all very important historically, and they may end up becoming among the most valuable of all the pandas, much like the 1933 double eagle in the USA.
<badon> I normally focus solely on keys, but the pricing and availability of these coins has encouraged me to build complete sets. The only one that is complete right now is the baby pandas, and the 2015 lunar pandas will possibly be next.
<hybridsole> Debase as in reduce it by a few grams?
<badon> When prices rise, I can sell the non-keys and keep the rarest ones forevery.
<badon> Yes, the weight was reduced from 31.1 g to 30 g in 2016.
<badon> The 2014 brass baby panda was also the first piedfort brass panda.
<badon> For historical reasons, the 30 g silver baby panda and 30 g gold seem to be the most important. So, the bras and 15 g silver have lagged behind. They might catch up later, who knows.
<badon> The Nanjing silver panda is 60 g.
<badon> The Nanjing 60 g silver panda was the first one to move up. It was very popular on the first day it was released, and that was before anyone knew about its relationship to the other pandas.
<hybridsole> Which year did the Nanjing come out?
<hybridsole> and how many
<badon> The silver baby pandas all have white spot problems, so I highly recommend buying those only in the original mint packaging (OMP), NOT certified.
<badon> The Nanjing panda was 2014, and I've forgotten the mintage. IT was small, something like 800 or 1000. I'll check, one moment.
<badon> 5 pandas in the Nanjing panda set: https://www.coincompendium.com/w/index.php/CCT6356
<badon> The mintage is 199 for 60 g silver.
<hybridsole> You wouldn't recommend getting any of the baby pandas graded? I notice the gold came in original packaging
<badon> I bought only brass and copper ones, because die rotation errors were discovered. I don't remember the details off the top of my head, but for brass I think the non-rotated non-error version was the rarest, and there were several different rotations for copper (I assume the maximum rotation was the most valuable one, so that's the one I bought)
<badon> hybridsole: Get the brass and gold graded.
<hybridsole> That gold for $3400 looks pretty good right now
<badon> Yes, if you can afford it, that's the first coin I recommend you buy.
<badon> If it's the only coin you can afford, it's better to diversify into multiple different coins.
<badon> Since the gold started at a high price, it is probably not going to move up as fast as the 15 g silver.
<hybridsole> It's not really affordable, but it looks good :)
<badon> The 15 g silver is not sold out yet! Amazingly, the original inventory is still available for those. When they sell out, they will reach $100 within weeks, maybe less.
<badon> The 2014 30 g gold baby panda would be the crown jewel of the finest of collections.
<badon> There is only 1 other flagship series panda that is rarer, that is also known to actually exist, and that's the 1982 1 oz platinum panda with a mintage of 5.
<badon> There's a possibility that there are other rare coins out there, but none of them have been confirmed, or they're patterns or something weird like that.
<hybridsole> Is it feasible to still buy them through the mint? Or pretty much just eBay
<badon> The closest counterpart to the baby pandas in the USA coin market are the 1907 high relief $20 Saint Gaudens gold double eagles. The most common one with a mintage of over 12'000 sells for about $8000 in badly damaged condition. The rarer ones sell for hundreds of thousands of dollars at least, and up to millions of dollars at most.
<hybridsole> How do we really know they are holding true to these mintage #'s?
<badon> None of these coins are still available through the mint. Actually, none of them were ever available directly from the mint.
<hybridsole> If there was a country to be lax on standards and allow something like that, wouldn't it be China?
<badon> Because the mint recognizes the damage that would be done to their reputation if they didn't stick to their mintage numbers. They have unilaterally broken contracts because of it, when they were asked to complete the authorized mintage for coins after their year of minting had passed.
<badon> No, not anymore. In fact, in the past there is only 1 or 2 known cases where it has been credibly alleged that China exceeded the authorized mintages. In nearly all other cases, the authorized mintage was overly optimistic and was never reached.
<hybridsole> Key word Known. If there lacks significant oversight, it could never be known
<hybridsole> Unless everyone who bought one all got together and added it up
<hybridsole> Maybe there is a watchdog there though. I don't know
<badon> hybridsole: That's exactly what we've done with the Coin Compendium.
<hybridsole> Doesn't seem to be in other areas of China such as manufacturing standards. Plenty of factories churning out counterfeit luxury goods
<badon> The CC tracks every known specimen that shows up on the market. We have literally counted all the surviving specimens for some of the coins.
<badon> I should say the CC is CAPABLE of tracking every known specimen. In practice, our funding is limited, so we target the most interesting ones first.
<badon> In general, actual mintages are typically between 10% and 50% of the authorized mintages, for the time period of 1979 to 2003. There are a lot of outliers, and in some cases there was no authorized mintage at all, so the mintage is completely unknown.
<badon> The 1984 silver goldfish are my favorite example of a completely unknown mintage. In that case ,we have to make comparisons to similar coins to divine the surviving population.
<badon> The 1984 silver goldfish probably have a surviving population of less than 100, based on the fact that they're substantially rarer than the 1984 silver pagodas (their twin), which has a very well-researched surivving population of about 100 specimens.
<hybridsole> I suppose with the knowledge of the community it could be detected. Same would be true in the physical Bitcoin community
<badon> Right.
<badon> There is a paper trail, and I'm one of the best investigators of this kind of thing.
<hybridsole> We know how many coins are made and sold from pretty much all the manufacturers. There are only so many of us
<badon> We know for a fact the China mints completely rejected any attempt at larger mintages in 2004, right when demand became high enough that they might actually reach the authorized mintages.
<badon> hybridsole: Yep. With coins as rare as these are, it's not too difficult to fit the facts with statistical models that can tell us when something isn't right. However, as I mentioned before, this is almost never necessary.
<badon> The China mint was operating exclusively for profit at a time when nobody wanted their coins, so in almost all cases, the mintages never reached expectations, and any unsold coins were melted if they got minted at all.
<badon> The China mint's tendency was to publish excessively high authorized mintages to give the impression of high popularity, when in fact nobody cared about "cheap Chinese junk".
<hybridsole> Are there no collectors in China also?
<badon> So, in fact, there was not enough demand to sell excess mintages. You know the mint wished there was, but there just wasn't.
<hybridsole> Seems crazy they can't sell 2000 coins
<badon> What 2000 coins are you talking about?
<hybridsole> It's gotta be mostly foreign collectors buying these
<hybridsole> The 15 gram baby pandas
<badon> The last communist restrictions were lifted in 2003, and 2004 was the first "normal" year where Chinese collectors could buy without fear.
<badon> Oh, the baby pandas are a special case.
<badon> The design, minting, and distribution of the baby pandas were kept secret.
<badon> Most mints would have destroyed them at the end of the test production run, but the Shanghai mint decided to quietly sell them through a few dealers in the West.
<hybridsole> They buy a ton of Bitcoin. I know that much
<badon> The reason they wanted it all to be secret is because they didn't want to cause alarm about their plans to debase the pandas.
<hybridsole> They also dump it on the market and crash the price
<badon> Chinese people love to gamble.
<badon> Chinese buyers now dominate the market, but occasionally there's a tug-of-war where foreigners take the initiative, for whatever reason. Baby pandas are a good example of that, but only because the mint deliberately kept the coins out of the spotlight.
<badon> They're still out of the spotlight, even though I've been writing about them.
<badon> One person said he thought the baby pandas had been "hyped to death", but he's completely fucking clueless. He has no idea how unknown they still are.
<hybridsole> Pretty much all price discovery for Bitcoin happens in China. America has most of the innovative companies and programmers, but China dictates the markets.
<badon> Right.
<badon> China is the leading superpower now.
<badon> They're only gradually discovering the coins, and many of these coins we can buy today for peanuts will reach HUGE valuations.
<badon> That $66 baby panda with a mintage of 2'014 might be worth tens of thousands of dollars.
<badon> The only precedent I could find for a coin like that are the 1907 high relief gold Saint Gaudens, where a damaged specimen with a mintage of 12'000 sells for $8000.
<badon> The 1907 high relief gold Saint Gaudens coins are the only other "production prototypes" I know of.
<badon> Production prototypes are not a normal thing for mints to produce, that's why it's so unusual, and that's why they tend to become ridiculously valuable.
<hybridsole> Does that mean I have to wait till 2107 to get that price for my baby panda? ;)
<badon> Haha, no. Things are happening much faster in China due to the artificial suppression of the market. The Chinese coin market is doing 300 years of maturation in a few decades.
<hybridsole> Just bought a 15g by the way.
<badon> Oh cool, congrats!
<hybridsole> You sold me
<badon> I told you I would :)
<badon> Can I talk you into joining #coins? This is a lively discussion.
<badon> Oh, and I got ##cryptocoin if you want a shorter channel name. In theory, I could forward it to this one, and then try to fit it into the topic of #coins.
<hybridsole> Yeah, I have to go to bed though, but I enjoyed the convo and learned a ton. Definitely want to chat more
<badon> OK, I'll see you again later. Cheers, and congrats!
<hybridsole> I joined #coins earlier so I'll be in the chan :)
<badon> Say hi on the forums if you get the chance.
<badon> OK, thanks!
<hybridsole> Cheers

More helpful info:

* Lists of panda coins that might be a good investment
* CHARTS! Gold pandas are moving up, but watch the silver lunars too
* Remember Nanjing 2014 pandas? Now Nanjing 2016 pandas, design proposals!
* Just got my Silver Baby Panda back from NGC - what is the forward potential?
* The big conspiracy of 2014 was the plot to debase the main series of fiat pandas in 2016
* The benefits of being a member of this forum: Baby panda No. 0001
* Design similarities: 2014 baby panda and 2012 1/4 oz silver panda 30th anniversary
* 2014 15g Silver Baby Panda Box & COA Detail Photos
* 2014 baby panda speculative investment potential comparison
* How to remove mint glue drippings from 2014 baby panda boxes
* 2015 2 oz silver lunar goat panda rare COA with artists names
* 2017 lunar rooster panda design proposal
* 2016 2 oz silver Antiqued Lunar Panda Monkey COA has crazy amount of zero's
* Rise of the lunars, lunar pandas, and cultural coins
« Last Edit: 2016 Jul 01, 11:56:04 PM by badon »
 

Offline badon

Also add this post to the list of links at the end of the above post, more information on this topic:

Congrats to Reddit's senator32 for new panda + debased metric panda & lunar info
 

Offline badon

A few more new topics full of info about The Big Four that we can add to the list of stuff for researchers to study:

* Did Nanjing 2012 to 2014 God of Wealth series lead to the Nanjing panda series?
* 2014 Nanjing pandas disappear ahead of release of 2016 Nanjing pandas
* 2016 July Pricepedia has badon's top 4 panda sets included
* 2016 Nanjing pandas now being delivered

I think this topic is the best first-place to start for researching all of these coins.
 

Offline badon

More info:

* 2016 Nanjing pandas being delivered - for real this time
* Re: MCC LIST #183, move from LBC and continuation here at the CC forum

That last one is an interesting discussion of comparisons with the 2016 1 oz silver ANA Anaheim pandas that have a mintage of 2000. The only one of the top 4 pandas mentioned here that has a mintage that hi is the 2014 15 g silver baby panda, with a mintage of 2'014, the same as the year. It is currently available at about $66 ungraded, or around $80 to $100 in PCGS or NGC 69 grade. The 2016 1 oz silver panda ANA Anaheim expo in NGC 69 grade has been selling for over $360, which implies the top 4 pandas mentioned here are very good deals.
 

Offline badon

 

Offline badon

So far in this topic we have a lot of the history, but not so much the future. Collectors like the history more than most, but everyone likes making money. I think this post does a good job of describing why I'm betting the farm on the investment potential of these 4 groups of related pandas:

Re: Priced too low - Non-fiat 2016 1 oz silver American liberty instantly gains 330%

In particular, it's this quote that says everything you need to know to understand why I'm betting the value of these coins will likely increase, and make them stand out from the crowd of other popular and/or low-mintage panda coins:

Although in general i tend to follow the 'buy what you like' school, At this moment i recognize the shift that is taking place now in 2016 with the move to none standard 30 gram weights, and the dramatic shift in investors mindset from fiat coins to non-fiat coins happening. That's why i have decided that at this point in time it's best to just follow badon's and other recommendations and try to buy some of the low mintage 2016 non-fiat medals, like baby panda's and panda lunars, because they will likely become key items for future collectors.
 

Offline badon

 

Offline badon

 

Offline badon

 

Offline badon

The short version:

1. Shanghai Mint CCT6412: 2014 baby panda 2016 prototype 4 coin set (ebay).
2. Nanjing mint CCT6356: 2014 two lovely pandas 5 coin set (ebay)
3. Shenyang Mint CCT6344: Lunar panda, 2015 to today (ebay).
4. Shanghai Mint CCT6990: Panda coin collection expo, 2013 to 2015 (ebay).

[...]

There are now better ebay links for my top 4 pandas in my badon's ebay spam filter links (BESFL). The improved links include newer recently-issued coins in addition to the older ones in the original post quoted above.
 

Offline badon

This post has some discussion of the potential positive influence of the mainstream media and numismatic-niche media on the Nanjing pandas if they get mentioned:

Re: MCC LIST #183, move from LBC and continuation here at the CC forum

It's very difficult to pick favorites from my top 4 panda sets/series here, and no doubt the excitement surrounding the newly issued 2016 Nanjing pandas will monopolize my attention for a while. That said, the post above compares the the effect of media mentions on the baby pandas and the lunar pandas, and then concludes the Nanjing pandas will likely benefit the most from it, if/when it happens. Of course, media attention and the effects of it can be difficult to predict, and it's notorious for changing quickly too, so we'll have to wait to see how it all plays out. For myself, I'm aggressively collecting all 4 of the pandas mentioned here, so whatever excitement eventually happens, I'll probably be a part of it.
 

Offline badon

Re: MCC LIST #183, move from LBC and continuation here at the CC forum:
I split and merged a post into here:

Re: Market capitalization: A new way for investors to compare, analyze, and predict coin prices

That post has some FANTASTIC information about target prices for the Nanjing pandas, all calculated using the market capitalization technique. Basically, the numbers make it look like they're going WAY up from where they are today. This technique is still experimental, but it looks to be valid so far, and I'm excited to my investment decisions confirmed by the numbers from these market capitalization calculations.
 

Offline badon

Mentioned:

Re: Nanjing 2016 5 g silver panda foil note higher mintage lower price

These notes might be considered related to the other coins surrounding the fiat versus non-fiat revolution in progress that makes the coins mentioned in this topic so valuable to collectors.
« Last Edit: 2016 Sep 08, 11:02:41 PM by badon »
 

Offline badon

Mentioned:

Imitation is the sincerest flattery: Investing based on fakes, spam, and fraud

The article has important information about prioritization of the coins listed here.
 

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Mentioned:

Re: 2016 panda Moon festival becomes a series, and they are selling quick

Maybe moon festival pandas can be considered part of the set of coins needed to have all the pandas related to the debasement to substandard metric weights of the main series of fiat 2016 pandas.
 

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