Author Topic: EPCC eligible pandas available on the market  (Read 2705 times)

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Offline badon

EPCC eligible pandas available on the market
« on: 2016 May 26, 09:55:14 PM »
2015 copper panda 3rd panda expo, mintage 299, all in ebay cheap auctions from dragonzeng168: NGC 69 162084189758, PCGS 69 152098574821, NGC 70 152100368772.
 

Offline badon

Re: EPCC eligible pandas available on the market
« Reply #1 on: 2016 May 30, 05:49:22 PM »
2014 1 oz silver panda 2nd panda expo PCGS 70 in a cheap auction: 152109131603. Mintage 1000. White spots problem. From dragonzeng168. It will probably sell cheap.
 

Offline badon

Re: EPCC eligible pandas available on the market
« Reply #2 on: 2016 Jun 05, 04:14:04 PM »
2015 copper panda 3rd panda expo PCGS 69 in a cheap auction: 162093477476. Mintage 299. From dragonzeng168.

2015 copper panda 3rd panda expo NGC 70 sold in a cheap auction: 162086024854. Mintage 299. From dragonzeng168.

2015 1 oz silver panda 3rd panda expo NGC 70 in a cheap auction: 162093079166. Mintage 420. From dragonzeng168.

2015 1 oz silver panda 3rd panda expo NGC 70 sold in a cheap auction: 162085550005. Mintage 420. From dragonzeng168.

1992 5 oz gold panda proof in a cheap auction: 301974181798. Mintage 99. Wow! Big gold pandas often sell for way below fair market value, and sometimes even below melt value.

2014 15 g silver baby panda PCGS 70 with spots in a cheap auction: 152114935739. Mintage 2'014. From dragonzeng168. This is the highest mintage accepted by the Elite Panda Coin Club, and this coin type is also probably the cheapest eligible type too. I will be curious to see what this one sells for, in comparison to the uncertified ones that are still around $66 from luckmoneyro.

2015 1 kg silver 1/10 oz gold panda moon festival NGC 70 in a cheap auction: 231966786293. Mintage 2000.

[...]

2016 1 oz silver panda Berlin expo NGC 69 sold for the full Buy-It-Now asking price: 381645480514. Mintage 2000.

2016 1 oz silver panda Berlin expo NGC 70 sold in a cheap auction: 141995224776. Mintage 2000. The 70 sold for almost 3.7 times MORE than the 69! This is a surprisingly high premium for a 70 in cheap auction. It implies the Buy-It-Now prices for the 69's might be too low. These coins are individually serial-numbered and every other panda like this has also achieved unusually high auction prices. It appears to me serial-numbered coins are popular! This bodes well for my 2012 lunar dragon 9 sons of the dragon coins, because they are also individually numbered. Usually, it's large size coins with very low mintages that get numbered, so maybe there's some sort of allure that reminds people of much rarer coins. In any case, you can buy a 2014 30 g silver baby panda and brass baby panda 2 coin set with a mintage of only 200 (1/10th the mintage!) for less money than one of these cost: 162093321030. Maybe the 69's are NOT underpriced, but instead it's the rarer coins that are underpriced?

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« Last Edit: 2016 Jun 05, 04:23:04 PM by badon »
 

Offline badon

Re: EPCC eligible pandas available on the market
« Reply #3 on: 2016 Jun 08, 04:45:49 PM »
[...]

1987 12 oz gold panda in a cheap auction: 272268251020. This listing has several "red flags" that lead me to believe it could be fraudulent, but there are not enough red flags for me to make that decision and add the seller to my filters. If this auction is legitimate, I think the odds are very high the coin will sell for below melt value. If you're brave, and the listing turns out to be legitimate, you might score big if you win it.

2015 copper panda 3rd panda expo NGC 70 in a cheap auction: 162095755074. Mintage 299. From dragonzeng168.

[...]

2015 1 oz silver panda 3rd panda expo NGC 69 sold in a Best Offer option: 222137570811 (price reveal). Mintage 800. From rainbird99 in China.

2014 1 oz silver panda 2nd panda expo NGC 69 sold for the full Buy-It-Now asking price: 322116348949. Mintage 1000. From luckmoneyro in China. It's good to see the rare panda expo coins selling well right now, from several different dealers.
 

Offline ivmost

  • Rookie
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Re: EPCC eligible pandas available on the market
« Reply #4 on: 2016 Jun 09, 06:32:37 AM »
1990 People's Republic gold "Zurich International Coin Expo" Proof Panda 1 oz Medal PR69 Ultra Cameo NGC, KMX-MB65.  (550 minted)   ivmost

1993 People's Republic gold Panda Proof 500 Yuan (5 oz) PR69 Ultra Cameo NGC, KM482. (99 minted)   ivmost
 

Offline badon

Re: EPCC eligible pandas available on the market
« Reply #5 on: 2016 Jun 09, 03:35:49 PM »
1986 12 oz gold panda NGC 69 in a cheap auction: 231973279178. Mintage 2550. It's interesting that such an expensive coin is not rare enough for acceptance into the Elite Panda Coin Club.

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2014 1 oz silver panda 2nd panda expo NGC 70 sold in a cheap auction: 162090883916. Mintage 1000. From dragonzeng168.

2015 1 oz silver panda 3rd panda expo mirror bamboo reverse cameo Great Wall NGC 70 sold in a cheap auction: 162090241788. Mintage 380. From dragonzeng168.

1988 5 oz silver panda lunar dragon Hong Kong expo sold: 401131460988.

[...]
 

Offline badon

Re: EPCC eligible pandas available on the market
« Reply #6 on: 2016 Jun 18, 09:02:10 PM »
2015 copper panda 3rd panda expo PCGS 69 in a cheap auction: 152125778638.

[...]
 

Offline badon

Re: EPCC eligible pandas available on the market
« Reply #7 on: 2016 Jun 18, 09:05:28 PM »
1982 gold panda NGC 68 4 coin set sold for the full Buy-It-Now asking price: 301981824508. From au3000. This seller became notorious for "whale fishing" in around the 2009 to 2011 time period because his prices were not merely too high, they were completely unfair. The coins he sold were gold pandas that crashed hard when the entire market pulled-back in the 2012 to 2015 time period. Although this dealer seems to have had poor success since then with "whale fishing", and has now stopped, seeing big sales of gold pandas from him makes me more confident that the main series of gold (mostly fiat) pandas is way overpriced right now. When a 1995 1/2 oz gold panda with a surviving population of something like 3000 to 4000 sells for $27'500, something is wrong. That coin isn't even close to qualifying for the Elite Panda Coin Club (EPCC), but fools who can't get rid of all their pesky money won't hesitate to pay such bloated prices for coins that simply are not worth it.

Fiat-loving investors have plenty of silver pandas to choose from, and many of them are as rare or rarer than the 1995 1/2 oz gold. Many of them are rarer than the 1982 gold too. For a set of 4 coins with mintages in the tens of thousands to sell for almost $10'000 is an impressively high valuation. I'm hesitant to say they're overpriced, because they're famous for holding their value due to their popularity with collectors for being the first year of issue. But, from an investor point of view, the odds are very low that this set will double in value during the next 6 months, compared to any of the elite pandas I have listed in this update (mostly from dragonzeng168). There are plenty of gold, silver, and copper/brass/bronze pandas that are NOT so hot as the main series of pandas. Especially the silver pandas, and for a direct apples-to-apples comparison, especially the main series of fiat silver pandas - they are all much better investments percentagewise than any of the main series gold pandas.

For myself, I'm avoiding buying fiat pandas for the most part. There are way too many high-percentage profit opportunities in non-fiat pandas, regardless of which metal they're made of, or which panda series they're from. My #1 top pick out of all the pandas ever made are the baby pandas. Minted in brass, 30 g silver, 30 g gold, and 15 g silver, they are very important production prototypes (akin to patterns) for the debasing of the entire main series of pandas in 2016. The brass and 30 g silver have both sold out and they gained gained substantially in value. I believe those coins still have a lot of upside potential, and I bought many of each of them with no intention to sell or trade until I get more gains.

Although the brass and 30 g silver baby pandas have a lot of remaining upside potential, for new purchases, I think the 30 g gold and the 15 g silver baby pandas are probably better. Neither of them are sold out yet, and prices have not gone up significantly. Actually, if you factor in USD fiat inflation, their prices may have dropped! Of the 30 g gold and the 15 g silver, my top short term investment pick in all of the pandas is the 2014 15 g silver baby panda, with a mintage of 2'014. At around $60 to $66 - way under the $100 price barrier (see: Charts of price barriers in the modern Chinese coin market) - they just can't be beat for short term investment potential AND low cost. High investment potential AND low cost is a combination that almost never happens, and I guarantee you it won't last long. If you're not sure what panda to invest in, get this 2014 15 g silver baby panda for $66 from luckmoneyro: 222153965298.

The 2014 30 g gold baby panda has an incredibly low mintage of only 30, but it's lot more expensive compared to the other baby pandas, at $3400: 222127110582. However, compared to the 1995 1/2 oz gold panda, or pretty much any key or semi-key gold panda, it's ridiculously cheap! In fact, I believe it will be able to reach the $1 million price level in the long term future. For the short to medium term, the price barrier charts show a BIG increase in sales at the $3500 level. So, it should be no problem for this coin to remain at its current price and even rise a little bit, perhaps even through both good times and bad. I think of a doubling as a reasonable short to medium term price target, because that's where people often want to take profits. So, $5000 to $6000 should be easily achievable.

The unknown factor for the 30 g gold baby panda is the very high popularity of gold in Chinese culture, versus the negative effect of the higher price versus silver. The reason the 1995 1/2 oz gold panda sells for more money than any other regular-issue main series panda in history is because too much attention is focused solely on gold. It's possible - actually I think should say it's likely - the 2014 30 g gold panda will do little or nothing for a long time, and then suddenly explode in value in a rocket ride to the moon. Indeed, that kind of price behavior is common for rare gold coins in today's era of numismatics, so I'm pretty confident I'll have to wait, and the wait will be totally worth it. I may have to wait decades for the 30 g gold baby panda to do something, and but when it happens, it will happen shockingly fast. In the meantime, I might try to buy a second coin if things really stay quiet that long.

One thing I'm NOT doing is waiting to get my hands on one. The 2014 30 g gold baby panda was one of the first baby pandas I bought, because I did not want to miss the boat if it moves sooner than expected. It's really completely unpredictable, so if you can afford it, I recommend getting one as soon as possible. In fact, I am tempted to tell you to buy the 30 g gold before any other baby panda, even if it means you won't be able to buy anything else. Normally it's important to diversify for many, many reasons, including psychological ones. The worst thing that can happen to an investor is dumping a great investment too soon due to boredom. Still, for the 2014 30 g gold baby panda, the upside potential is so huge and the timing so unpredictable, bagging that coin is possibly more important than diversification.

The crazy-high $27'500 price on the 1995 1/2 oz gold panda demonstrates that gold panda buyers don't care much about diversification! That will change in the future, but for now they're buying based on the brand popularity of the main series of gold pandas, much like a fashion lover might pay $100+ to buy a $3 cotton T-shirt just because it says "Armani" on it. The coin market is prone to fashion trends like any other cultural realm, and right now, gold pandas are in style. The great Nick Brown used to say "Rarity never goes out of style", and while that's not strictly true, one thing is certain: Rarity is a much more reliable investment than fashion trends. I'm betting on the baby pandas solely due to rarity, but I have no doubt eventually fashion will play a role in the market "discovering" them. When the market does finally discover them, the odds are good the same fashionable tendencies that have pushed the 1995 1/2 oz gold panda to $27'500 will also push the 2014 30 g gold baby panda to similar heights, and even greater heights.

[...]

2014 1 oz silver panda 2nd panda expo PCGS 70 with spots problems in a cheap auction: 152129687101. Mintage 1000. From dragonzeng168.

2014 1 oz silver panda 2nd panda expo NGC 70 in a cheap auction: 162102235598. Mintage 1000. From dragonzeng168.

2014 2 oz silver panda 2nd panda expo PCGS 70 in a cheap auction: 162103356736. Mintage 299. From dragonzeng168.

2015 copper panda 3rd panda expo NGC 69 in a cheap auction: 162105917767. Mintage 299. From dragonzeng168.

[...]

2015 1 oz silver panda 3rd panda expo mirror bamboo reverse cameo Great Wall NGC 69 in a cheap auction: 162105932086. Mintage 380. From dragonzeng168.

2015 2 oz silver panda 3rd panda expo PCGS 69 in cheap auction: 152127838468. Mintage 299. From dragonzeng168. I really like the panda expo coins because of their rarity and their higher-than-average importance compared to other coin expo pandas. Coin expo pandas in general do very well at keeping up with prices of more popular pandas that have similar rarity, but the panda expo coins specifically represent pandas, which could give them a boost ahead of the other expo pandas. Since the panda expo events seem to have been cancelled, and the rumors of a 2016 expo are looking increasingly doubtful as the year passes by, I think it's possible the existing 1st, 2nd, and 3rd panda expo coins may never be equalled by any other expo pandas.

Although I still like the baby pandas more than the panda expo coins, I have invested in them myself due to their quirky short history and interesting status as expo pandas that represent VIP-only events. I have only bought the rarest ones so far, but the low prices for the more available ones in the dragonzeng168's cheap auctions means those are becoming attractive as investments too. Popularity is always good for a coin, but it can be taken for granted if the market as a whole is popular. Then, the only thing that remains is rarity and simply being interesting oddities for collectors. That's enough to make them a good investment, even if they remain so obscure, very few people ever learn they exist.

Being the only VIP expos for which expo pandas were minted is pretty interesting, and ALL of the coins are rare. Off the top of my head, I can't think of any that have mintages above the 2'014 cut-off to be considered an "elite panda" under the Elite Panda Coin Club's rarity criteria. That means all of the panda expo coins are "elite"! You could probably count on one hand how many pandas there are where the whole series is elite. Baby pandas, panda expos, and lunar pandas are the only ones I can think of at the moment. Can you think of any others?

I thought it was interesting that the 2015 3rd panda expo coin design was completed in 2014, and the designer decided to reuse it for the 2014 Macau expo panda, which were released first, before the coins they were originally designed for. That leads to obvious appearance that it was the 2015 3rd panda expo that copied its design from the 2014 Macau expo panda, when in fact it's the other way around. It's things like this that lead to coins becoming more valuable to collectors, because of their interesting history.

* Search ebay for 2015 3rd panda expo pandas
* Search ebay for 2014 Macau expo pandas

2016 1 oz silver panda Berlin expo NGC 70 sold for the full Buy-It-Now asking price: 122012835494. Mintage 2000. That's a lot of money! German buyers are famous for driving prices up for expo panda minted for a coin show in Germany. The price on this has increased 25.16% since the previous sale a few days ago: 131816956925. That's some seriously aggressive buying for these in 70 grade. PRices on the 69's have gone up about 33.30% during the same time period, but during a longer time period it's clear prices are going up faster for the 70.

* Search ebay for 2016 Berlin pandas.
* Search ebay for 2016 Berlin pandas ended sold.

dragonzeng168 says it's because bond interest rates are negative in Germany right now, so Germans are literally trying to get rid of their money. Maybe it's not so strange afterall that people are blowing ridiculous sums of money on gold pandas... Gold hit $1300 today, so I suspect the buying firepower in this market will continue to increase. This is supposed to be a slowdown, but no, we're getting record high prices! It's 2008 all over again. Let the good times roll!

2016 2 oz silver lunar panda monkey NGC 70 sold for the full Buy-It-Now asking price: 162096568363. Mintage 499. This is 4 times as rare and much more important historically than the Berlin expo panda above, even though it costs less than 1/3 the price. Literally, you could buy 3 of these for less money than the Berlin expo panda above. With a mintage of only 499, I have no doubt this coin is the better investment. The fact it competes directly with the current flagship panda series is what makes it more important than the Berlin expo panda that only competes against other German expo pandas. However, I suppose that means the Berlin expo panda is a good example of a case where popularity isn't a factor in making it more valuable. A small number of smart Germans with lots of national pride, and plenty of money to spend, are all it takes to make the Berlin expo panda worth more than this lunar panda.

[...]
 

Offline ivmost

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Re: EPCC eligible pandas available on the market
« Reply #8 on: 2016 Jun 19, 03:00:12 AM »
bid now online - live auction on June 22nd (Hong Kong)!

1990 People's Republic gold "Zurich International Coin Expo" Proof Panda 1 oz Medal PR69 Ultra Cameo NGC, KMX-MB65.  (550 minted)   ivmost

1993 People's Republic gold Panda Proof 500 Yuan (5 oz) PR69 Ultra Cameo NGC, KM482. (99 minted)   ivmost
 

Offline badon

Re: EPCC eligible pandas available on the market
« Reply #9 on: 2016 Jun 19, 05:38:47 AM »
2000 1 kg silver panda in a cheap auction: 252429790960.

The mintage is 2'000 on the 1 kg silver panda quoted above. It's expensive, but it qualifies as an elite panda.
 

Offline badon

Re: EPCC eligible pandas available on the market
« Reply #10 on: 2016 Jun 22, 08:13:57 PM »
2015 2 oz silver panda 3rd panda expo NGC 69 in a cheap auction: 162112744289. Mintage 199. From dragonzeng168.

2015 1 oz silver panda 3rd panda expo frosted bamboo cameo Great Wall PCGS 69 with spot in a cheap auction: 152139063238. Mintage 420. From dragonzeng168.

2015 1 oz silver panda 3rd panda expo mirror bamboo reverse cameo Great Wall PCGS 69 in a cheap auction: 152136442489. Mintage 380. From dragonzeng168.

2015 copper panda 3rd panda expo PCGS 69 in cheap auction: 162111060295. Mintage 299. From dragonzeng168.

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Offline badon

Re: EPCC eligible pandas available on the market
« Reply #11 on: 2016 Jun 29, 07:22:59 PM »
2014 1 oz silver panda 2nd panda expo PCGS 70 in a cheap auction: 162121261192. Mintage 1000. From dragonzeng168.

2015 copper panda 3rd panda expo NGC 70 in a cheap auction: 152146789444. Mintage 299. From dragonzeng168.

2015 copper panda 3rd panda expo PCGS 69 in a cheap auction: 152146166763. Mintage 299. From dragonzeng168.

2015 1 oz silver panda 3rd panda expo matte antiqued PCGS 68 in an auction: 152145505021. Mintage 99. From dragonzeng168. This isn't a cheap auction, and it's not a 69 or 70. But, it has a bid, and it will sell. All of these auctions from dragonzeng168 seem to be drumming up interest in the panda expo coins. I doubt this would have sold if it weren't for that fact, so that's why I think these auctions are the best marketing these coins could ever get. They're not very well known, but they are some of the rarest pandas ever made, of any kind. Being mostly unknown has made it easy for people to dismiss them as unimportant, but that dismissal is apparently backfiring - Last I heard, the panda expos have been cancelled, probably due to lack of interest or whatever (they were VIP-only to begin with), and dragonzeng168 needs to raise some cash, so he's letting some go cheap. That's a perfect combination for these to become much more profitable for buyers than they would have been otherwise.

2015 1 oz silver panda 3rd panda expo mirror bamboo reverse cameo Great Wall PCGS 69 sold for the full Buy-It-Now asking price: 151888687081. Once again, I think the cheap auction sales are stimulating more sales of panda expos in listings that are cheap auctions. This is simply because the cheap auctions are prompting more people to begin collecting the panda expos. This is very positive for our investments in these coins.

2015 2 oz silver panda 3rd panda expo NGC 69 in a cheap auction: 152149320567. Mintage 299. From dragonzeng168.

dragonzeng168 put a 2015 1 oz silver panda 3rd panda expo cameo and reverse cameo PCGS 69 2 coin set on ebay, with white spot problems: 162120244337, 162120242755. What makes these listings interesting is they're not cheap auctions, and they're not high auction starting prices either. The first one is starting at $116, and the other one is starting at $115. This is just a wild guess, but I suspect these prices might be dragonzeng168's wholesale prices that he paid to the mint or the sponsor-distributor, perhaps including grading and shipping fees. If it's not that, then maybe these prices represent the maximum loss he's willing to take on these coins, after other cheap auctions sold too cheaply. Interesting.
 

Offline badon

Re: EPCC eligible pandas available on the market
« Reply #12 on: 2016 Jul 02, 01:05:15 AM »
My chat with Hybridsole about 4 RELATED(!) pandas for investment purposes
The short version:

1. Shanghai Mint CCT6412: 2014 baby panda 2016 prototype 4 coin set (ebay).
2. Nanjing mint CCT6356: 2014 two lovely pandas 5 coin set (ebay)
3. Shenyang Mint CCT6344: Lunar panda, 2015 to today (ebay).
4. Shanghai Mint CCT6990: Panda coin collection expo, 2013 to 2015 (ebay).

[...]
 

Offline badon

Re: EPCC eligible pandas available on the market
« Reply #13 on: 2016 Jul 09, 05:14:33 PM »
[...]

2015 copper panda 3rd panda expo NGC 69 sold in a cheap auction: 162121881183. Mintage 299. I'm absolutely shocked how cheap this sold for! BIG congrats to the buyer. There are no other pandas this rare at the $100 price level. You can easily spend that much or more on coins with mintages in the millions.

2016 copper panda Berlin expo sold in a Best Offer option: 201619011669 (price reveal). Mintage 200. The seller (from Germany) states that it's possible only 100 were actually minted. He also states that these were VIP gifts for dealers attending the Berlin expo. The sale price here was $1650. The MUCH more important brass and 30 g silver baby pandas have the same 200 mintage, but can be bought CERTIFIED in NGC of PCGS 69 grade for lesst than $500. What makes this Berlin expo so much more valuable is its VIP status, and the fact German collectors aren't afraid to spend a lot of money on Germany-theme expo pandas.

But what about the panda expo coins? The panda expos were VIP-only events, arguably more "special" than the Berlin expo, at least to Chinese collectors. I believe the panda expo coins are all underpriced, even at full Buy-It-Now asking prices. Take a look at this 2015 1 oz silver panda 3rd panda expo PCGS 69 that sold in a Best Offer option: 222123009256 (price reveal). Mintage 99. That one sold for only $375 a few months ago! WOW! That's dirt cheap. There are currently 4 specimens of the antiqued panda expos on ebay right now, and all of them have a mintage of only 99: Search ebay for antiqued panda expo coins. All of them are certified by either NGC or PCGS, and there is currently a 69 grade of each type available too. dragonzeng168 is the only seller in the world offering them on ebay right now. Why? Because they're from a VIP-only event and they're simply difficult to get. Apparently, nobody else wants to sell theirs, for good reasons. That's a lot of bang for your buck in terms of low mintage rarity. The 2017 panda expo has been cancelled, so unless they're holding one last expo in 2016 (info about VIP-only events is hard to get too), that's the end of the low mintage VIP-only panda expo coins.

Right now, fools and their money are being quickly parted, thanks to the marketing of gold panda "master" sets that aren't even complete sets. My opinion is that the gold pandas are way overheated. Common date pandas with mintages and/or surviving populations in the high thousands are selling for many multiples of their melt value. With that kind of money, a more educated buyer could build a very nice set of key copper/brass/bronze pandas, and the upside on those is much larger, in terms of percentage profits. Whether the copper/brass/bronze (CBB) pandas will reach the same heights as the gold pandas of similar rarity remains to be seen, but the historical precedent in all of numismatics is for the cheaper silver and CBB coins to be the first to achieve high prices, due to the simple fact that more people collect them (before they became wealthy). China's numismatic market is a bit upside down in that regard, with many people starting their coin collecting hobbies with gold instead of the cheaper metals. Whether that will change the future potential of the silver and CBB pandas - I'm not convinced it will, but without giving it more thought, I suppose it's possible.

Either way, most of the wealthy gold panda collectors are going to lose any bragging rights contest with somebody who focuses their collecting on COMPLETING a collection, which eventually means they will have to work on obtaining the rarest of the rare. For now, Chinese buyers are simply pawns to marketing, buying whatever gets their attention. Eventually they're going to get bored when nobody acts impressed if they say they own a 1995 1/2 oz gold panda with a surviving population in the thousands. What then? They'll just have to keep up with the Joneses...

Rarity always wins.
 

Offline badon

Re: EPCC eligible pandas available on the market
« Reply #14 on: 2016 Jul 16, 05:03:23 PM »
2015 2 oz silver lunar goat panda NGC 70 in a cheap auction: 222185595616. EPCC eligible. From dealpanda. Mintages are listed in CCT6344: Lunar panda. Rare, popular, controversial, and poised to seize flagship status from both the main series of fiat pandas and the fiat lunars. It's a cheap auction too, so there's a lot to like about this listing.

[...]

2015 2 oz silver panda 3rd panda expo NGC 69 in a cheap auction: 222185587845. EPCC eligible. From dealpanda. Mintages are listed in CCT6990: Panda coin collection expo.

2014 2 oz silver panda 2nd panda expo NGC 70 in a cheap auction: 222185583990. EPCC eligible. From dealpanda. Mintages are listed in CCT6990: Panda coin collection expo.

2013 2 oz silver panda 1st panda expo NGC 67 in a cheap auction: 222185578679EPCC eligible. From dealpanda. Mintages are listed in CCT6990: Panda coin collection expo.

2012 502 g silver panda 30th anniversary NGC 65 in a cheap auction: 191919359565. EPCC eligible. Mintage info here: CCT6137: 2012 silver panda 30th anniversary issuance of panda. RARE!  This coin is rare than I thought. It is one of the rarest of all of the pandas. Although its mintage is equally as low as some of the CCT6990: Panda coin collection expo coins, the big difference is this coin specifically commemorates the 30th anniversary of the first CCT1234: 1982 gold panda 4 coin set, which arguably makes it part of the "main" series of pandas, while panda expo coins are lumped together with other expo pandas.

That said, I think the panda expo coins have sufficient advantages of their own that they may be able to beat this panda. Why? Firstly, the panda expos are normal size coins, and although being a large size in silver, and from a small set isn't a big problem (like it often is for gold), I think the panda expo coins do have the advantage due to size alone. Also, the panda expo coinss were no ordinary expo pandas. Yes, they do get lumped with the other coin expo pandas, but the one thing that makes them special is their expo was exclusively for pandas, and no other coins. That's enough to almost match the 30th anniversay panda's advantage in "panda-ness".

One final thing that makes the panda expo coins special is the fact they were VIP-only events, and the coins were not made available for purchase by the general public at the expos, nor anywhere else. Only a few VIP's and well-connected dealers like dragonzeng168 were able to bring a few of them to the market. Nearly the entire supply was absorbed by the VIP's and their friends before anyone bothered to offer a few to the public. That one fact is the reason why I own panda expo coins, but I don't own this 2012 30th anniversary panda. I can't afford to buy everything I want to invest in, but if I could - maybe if my collection of panda expo sets were complete - then, I would probably want to have one of these in my collection.

Either way, I'm definitely going to be watching this auction to see what the coin sells for. I know a lot of other people have noticed these pandas, and they haven't said much about them, but they all know they're probably good investments. They're just waiting for their "I told you so" moment :)

Another thought I just had about this coin is the possibility that the 502 gram weight is a bit too precise. I suspect the nominal weight is supposed be 1/2 kilogam, which is 500 grams. The extra 2 grams might just be a manufacturing tolerance of +2 grams and -0 grams, which means the coin must weight no less than the advertised weight of 1/2 kilogram, but it's OK if it's a little bit too heavy (no one will complain about getting extra silver for free).

This coin appears to be cast in a mold (or mould, in UK English), as opposed to being struck by a pair of obverse and reverse dies. All modern coins are struck with dies, and casting in a mold became obsolete almost 2500 years ago. However, casting can do things that die-striking cannot do, in terms of artistic quality. That's why I call cast coins "artisanal", meaning they're produced by artisans (artists) to achieve character traits that were lost when technology made their techniques obsolete. In that case, this coin should probably be included in CCT4368: Artisanal cast coins.

[...]

2014 30 g silver baby panda 2016 prototype PCGS 68 sold for the full Buy-It-Now asking price: 162089051069. From dragonzeng168.
 

Offline badon

Re: EPCC eligible pandas available on the market
« Reply #15 on: 2016 Jul 19, 10:07:15 PM »
Re: Remember Nanjing 2014 pandas? Now Nanjing 2016 pandas, design proposals!, from today:
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Nanjing 2014 copper panda NGC 70 sold for the full Buy-It-Now asking price: 152107597194. From dragonzeng168.

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That one quoted above sold for $368, and it has a mintage of 199, the same as the 2016 copper version. That sale was several months ago, before we knew for sure that the Nanjing mint would definitely turn them into a real panda series. The 2016 copper version is currently priced at only $50, so there appears to be a lot of upside potential at such a low price. This is about the same price as the 2014 15 g silver baby pandas were introduced at, but those have a MUCH larger mintage of 2'014. It looks to me that these intro prices are perhaps 1/4 of what they should be for the 2016 Nanjing pandas. I suspect the Nanjing 2016 copper panda prices could quadruple to 400% of the pre-sale intro prices in maybe 1 or 2 years, or something like that, depending on how long it takes for them to sell-out.

I did a search for Nanjing 2014 copper pandas available on ebay, and I found this uncertified (raw) copper one from luckmoneyro for $300 Buy-It-Now, with no Best Offer option: 222188047513. Strangely, it appears thincat00 is not aware that asking prices have gone up for these, and he's offering a Nanjing 2014 copper panda NGC 69 for only $166 Buy-It-Now WITH a Best Offer option: 162098046679. That price is way too low, so if you want it, I recommend just grabbing it at the full Buy-It-Now asking price before someone else gets it. Waiting for your Best Offer option to be accepted means someone else will probably grab it at the full Buy-It-Now asking price, and you will end up with nothing.

If I remember correctly, I paid about $300 each for my Nanjing 2014 brass pandas in NGC 69 grade. They have a mintage of 100. The only 2014 brass pandas still available are this NGC 68 for $349, 201459493411, and this heavily damaged specimen for $99, 131871753365, from ggoodluck2013. I have to wonder how that one got damaged. Did ggoodluck2013 play with it and accidentally drop it? Unlikely. I think it got dropped by a mint employee before it was packaged in a protective capsule.

One reason a coin could have that much handling damage before being packaged for shipping is if the coin is a pattern or trial strike, and it's being examined for approval before giving the order to begin full speed production with the current coining press settings. I can see 5 very large dings on the rims of that damaged coin, and that is very likely to be caused by being dropped not once, not twice, but MULTIPLE times. This coin may have been passed around from person to person for weeks before it was decided to finally put it inside a protective capsule. The only obvious reason I can think of for a coin to be passed around like that is if it was a pattern or trial strike, and approval from multiple people was required before beginning production.

The artist, the coining press operator, the mint manager, the sponsor, distributors and dealers, and maybe more people were possibly allowed to inspect this coin specimen before it was packaged and sent to ggoodluck2013. As a smaller dealer, they probably figured they could screw-over ggoodluck2013 by sending him a damaged coin, and he would not have the clout to complain about it. Imagine the irony if it turns out this coin really was a pattern or trial strike, and no one realized its value before sending it to an "unimportant" dealer. For myself, I consider ggoodluck2013 an IMPORTANT dealer, because he has a long track record for having some of the best and most important coins before anyone else realizes their value. This coin - if it is indeed a pattern, trial strike, dealer sample, or something like that - would fit perfectly with ggoodluck2013's track record.

So, if my hunches are correct, and this damaged coin is actually special somehow, the coin would need some sort of identifying characteristics to differentiate it from other coins. Without that, anybody can claim their mass-produced coin is special. In this case, I think the identifying characteristics of this coin are the uniquely recognizable marks, and my independent recognition of the coin as potentially something special (I have not talked to ggoodluck2013 about this coin yet). Next, all we would need is some info from ggoodluck2013 about how he came to own this coin, because perhaps he has a simple explanation for why it was damaged - like if perhaps it got chewed up in a package sorting machine in China's postal system, or whatever. Consulting with ggoodluck2013 is the next step for investigating this coin, and establishing a provenance that either confirms or refutes my hypothesis that it might be a pattern, trial strike, or dealer sample.

It's worthwhile to read the rest of that topic, for those who are interested in the new Nanjing panda series.
 

Offline badon

Re: EPCC eligible pandas available on the market
« Reply #16 on: 2016 Sep 08, 09:14:22 PM »
Does anyone find these posts useful? No one ever replied and I stopped updating them. Should I keep updating them?
 

Offline Jens

Re: EPCC eligible pandas available on the market
« Reply #17 on: 2016 Sep 09, 12:53:08 PM »
I think you're already posting enough good stuff as it is, people who are interested in these coins will probably already see them in your filtered ebay links or in the main MCC LIST #183 discussion, so imho you can save the extra time for this thread.
"You have to choose (as a voter) between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the natural stability of the honesty and intelligence of the members of the Government.
And, with due respect for these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the Capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold."   - George Bernard Shaw -
 

Offline badon

Re: EPCC eligible pandas available on the market
« Reply #18 on: 2016 Sep 09, 01:08:24 PM »
OK, thank you for the feedback. It will save me time, just like you said.