Author Topic: The story of the 2015 Chinese aerospace commemorative coins  (Read 2145 times)

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Offline badon

Lots of new 2015 aerospace commemoratives arrived on the market some weeks ago:



The banks have plenty of them:



But they won't let you buy them unless you have ID, and they restrict you to only 3 coins per ID:



Some people are not satisfied with only 3, so they find ways to get more:



...and more:



...and more:



...and more:



For some people it has become a competition to show off wealth, so they take photos next to their expensive new gadgets:



Experienced coin collectors make fun of the useless expensive gadgets:



The newcomers try to appear more sophisticated, so they put the coins in nice holders:



With the coins "put on a pedestal", the owners spend more time examining them, and they find little secrets:



The experienced collectors are pleased to see the newcomers become more sophisticated, so they show them another secret - die states:





The earliest die states have full cameo frosting, and the nicest ones can get magnificent 68 grades from NGC:



Prices immediately begin rising rapidly, and even the poorest of people want to gamble:



Only 1 ID is not enough to get more than 3 coins from the bank lady:



So people decide that if they want to buy more coins, they need to get fake ID's - a LOT of fake ID's:



Some people are bragging about earning big stacks of cash from selling fake ID's:



The supply of the coins may be limited, but the fake ID printers can print anything they want, just for fun:



Meanwhile, coin collectors decide to hunt for interesting serial numbers in the banknote aerospace commemoratives, like these consecutive numbers:



Some of the serial numbers are a little bit interesting, with a few lucky 8's:



Some of the serial numbers are very interesting, and very valuable:



But some experienced coin collectors say the banknotes are worthless fiat paper:



The coin collectors say the printers can make more fiat banknotes as easily as they make more ID's:



The banknote collectors remind the coin collectors that their original mint packaging (OMP) might not be original:



Then, somebody posts photos of the aerospace theme SILVER coins minted in 1996:







The authorized mintage was 20'000, which is 5000 times rarer than the 100 million mintage 2015 coins. At today's highest market prices of $200 each for the 1996's, they cost only 25 times more than today's 50 yuan ($8) bank price for the 2015's. Those numbers are probably very conservative because the actual mintage was definitely lower in 1996. The typical survival rate for the actual mintages in the 1990's time period was only 10% to 50%.

Assuming 100% survival rate of the full authorized mintage is a conservative extreme. At the other extreme, we could assume a surviving population of 2000 specimens for the 1996 silver aerospace coins. If we also use today's best ebay price of about $128 per coin for the 1996's, then they are 50'000 times rarer at only 16 times the price! Comparisons like these aren't always reliable in the real world, so we must seek guidance from our wise leaders:



All photos in this article came from the discussions in China's Classical Gardens QQ group during the last several weeks. I used some creative license to put them together in a sequential narrative. This article roughly represents my impressions of how the flow of the conversations took place in China, after the coins were first released. For more information about these coins, view the CCT6658: Aerospace and aviation series.
« Last Edit: 2015 Dec 08, 03:19:32 PM by badon »
 

Offline badon

 

Offline badon

Re: The story of the 2015 Chinese aerospace commemorative coins
« Reply #2 on: 2016 Apr 11, 02:41:17 AM »
I just talked to dragonzeng168 about market conditions in China, and in short, they're "Crazy" with a capital "C". He told me about the wealthy person submitted 100'000 of the 2015 brass and copper-nickel aerospace 10 yuan coins to NGC for 170 RMB ($26 USD) each, for total of more than $2.6 million USD! He said the person has lost money because he has so many of them that he can never sell them all, because attempting to do so will only drive prices down. Liquidity is the biggest weakness of the coin market - if you get greedy and try to corner the market, you're going to end up in a situation where you drive prices up with your buying, and then drive prices down with your selling, which are both the worst situations possible.

I've known about this for a long time, but in talking about this phenomenon with dragonzeng168, I had huge epiphany - rare coins do not have this problem! Rare coins are, by definition, uncornerable. They're so rare, you can never saturate the market with them. So, this person that invested $2.6 million USD in common coins with a mintage 100 million will be able to build his own poor-house out of all the slabbed coins, while he watches everyone else make tons of money on rare coins he's never heard of or seen before. In other words, rich Chinese people are learning - by force - that they should be buying rare coins.

Assuming the guy that blew $2.6 million on the aerospace coins isn't bankrupt yet, maybe his next purchase will be hand engraved pagodas, lunar pandas, or baby pandas? We know what $2.6 million can do to coins with a mintage of 100 million, but what will it do to coins with mintages of a few hundred? Yikes! That's my favorite word lately...
 

Offline badon

Re: The story of the 2015 Chinese aerospace commemorative coins
« Reply #3 on: 2016 Apr 11, 02:49:51 AM »
The aerospace banknote has a mintage of 300 million! That explains why some people don't treat them very well...
 

Offline badon